The project

Mussel Forecast – Short-term forecasting of temperature and salinity profiles for mussel farming in the northern Adriatic

Funded under the NP EMFAF 2021/2027 (Reg. EU no. 2021/1139), Priority 3 – Specific Objective 3.1, through the community-led local development strategy of the FLAG del Veneziano (Call for Action 3.B.1 – “Technological and productive improvement of offshore aquaculture facilities”), the Mussel Forecast project aims to help mussel farmers in the northern Adriatic counter the economic damage caused by rising summer water temperatures. The project is promoted by Società Agricola ItalVivai, holder of an offshore mussel-farming concession off the island of Pellestrina (VE).

One of the key problems affecting mussel farming in the northern Adriatic is the rise in average summer water temperatures, with surface values that can exceed 28 °C for weeks at a time. Above 26 °C, the production of the byssus – the protein filaments the mussels use to attach to the ropes – is impaired, causing the molluscs to detach and fall to the seabed, with serious production losses. The 2024 season is a clear example: mussel production was severely reduced by summer heatwaves and by abundant mucilage.

The proposed solution is a data-driven approach. By monitoring temperature and salinity throughout the entire water column and forecasting their short-term behaviour, farmers can lower the ropes to the optimal depth, where the water is cooler, seeking the best balance between temperature and the availability of phytoplankton, the mussels’ food source. The result is a farming system that is more resilient to the overall warming of the waters, capable of reducing summer mortality and safeguarding production.

Project phases

Work Package 1:

Offshore equipment

Construction and installation of the mooring blocks for the floating farming structures (109 anchor blocks already installed within the concession).

Work Package 2:

Data and forecasting model

Real-time acquisition of temperature and salinity along the water column and development of the short-term forecasting model.

Work Package 3: 

Dissemination

Visualisation interface, knowledge transfer and training for operators in the sector.

The role of Bluefarm

Bluefarm is the technical body responsible for data processing and the development of the forecasting model, drawing on its expertise in environmental modelling and oceanographic data analysis:

• Acquisition and quality control of in-situ data: temperature and salinity values recorded daily along the water column using CTD probes (Solinst Levelogger 5) are acquired and validated through API interfaces.
• Environmental time series (Copernicus Marine Service): extraction and processing of historical time series of sea surface temperature (SST), salinity and chlorophyll-a for the concession area, from the public Copernicus Marine Service portal.
• Development of the forecasting model: implementation of a one-week-ahead forecasting model of the vertical temperature and salinity profiles, based on the integrated analysis of in-situ data and short-term surface forecasts.
• Validation and calibration: verification of the model’s accuracy against the actual values measured at the mussels’ immersion depth, and fine-tuning of the rapid rope-depth adjustment system.
• User interface and dissemination: development of an interface for displaying the validated time series and weekly forecasts, sharing the results with operators in the sector through social channels, webinars and meetings at the FLAG del Veneziano service centres.

The thermocline-level forecasting service and the temperature and salinity measurements along the water column will not end when the project closes, but will continue afterwards, ensuring the ongoing growth of the forecasting model and continued support for operators.

Location