{"id":7576,"date":"2026-07-30T10:03:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T10:03:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bluefarmenvironment.com\/?post_type=project&#038;p=7576"},"modified":"2026-07-30T10:26:05","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T10:26:05","slug":"mussel-forecast","status":"publish","type":"project","link":"https:\/\/www.bluefarmenvironment.com\/en\/project\/mussel-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Mussel Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; locked=&#8221;off&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; column_structure=&#8221;1_3,1_3,1_3&#8243; locked=&#8221;off&#8221;][et_pb_column _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; type=&#8221;1_3&#8243;][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; type=&#8221;1_3&#8243;][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; type=&#8221;1_3&#8243;][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/www.bluefarmenvironment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot_1-1024&#215;205.png&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; title_text=&#8221;Screenshot_1&#8243; hover_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243; sticky_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243;][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; background_color=&#8221;#eff0f3&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;3%|5%|3%|5%|true|true&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3>The project<\/h3>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #003f72;\">Mussel Forecast \u2013 Short-term forecasting of temperature and salinity profiles for mussel farming in the northern Adriatic<\/span><\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Funded under the <strong>NP EMFAF 2021\/2027<\/strong> (Reg. EU no. 2021\/1139), Priority 3 \u2013 Specific Objective 3.1, through the community-led local development strategy of the <strong>FLAG del Veneziano<\/strong> (Call for Action 3.B.1 \u2013 <em>&#8220;Technological and productive improvement of offshore aquaculture facilities&#8221;<\/em>), the <strong>Mussel Forecast<\/strong> project aims to help mussel farmers in the northern Adriatic counter the economic damage caused by rising summer water temperatures. The project is promoted by <strong>Societ\u00e0 Agricola ItalVivai<\/strong>, holder of an offshore mussel-farming concession off the island of Pellestrina (VE).<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">One of the key problems affecting mussel farming in the northern Adriatic is the <strong>rise in average summer water temperatures<\/strong>, with surface values that can exceed <strong>28 \u00b0C<\/strong> for weeks at a time. Above <strong>26 \u00b0C<\/strong>, the production of the <strong>byssus<\/strong> \u2013 the protein filaments the mussels use to attach to the ropes \u2013 is impaired, causing the molluscs to detach and fall to the seabed, with serious production losses. The 2024 season is a clear example: mussel production was severely reduced by summer heatwaves and by abundant <strong>mucilage<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The proposed solution is a <strong>data-driven approach<\/strong>. By monitoring temperature and salinity throughout the entire <strong>water column<\/strong> and forecasting their short-term behaviour, farmers can lower the ropes to the <strong>optimal depth<\/strong>, where the water is cooler, seeking the best balance between temperature and the availability of <strong>phytoplankton<\/strong>, the mussels&#8217; food source. The result is a farming system that is more <strong>resilient<\/strong> to the overall warming of the waters, capable of reducing summer mortality and safeguarding production.<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; background_color=&#8221;#eff0f3&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;3%|5%|3%|5%|true|true&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3>Project phases<\/h3>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #003f72;\">Work Package 1:<\/span><\/h4>\n<h4>Offshore equipment<\/h4>\n<p>Construction and installation of the mooring blocks for the floating farming structures (109 anchor blocks already installed within the concession).<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #003f72; font-size: 18px; font-family: Overpass, sans-serif; font-weight: bold;\">Work Package 2:<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Data and forecasting model<\/h4>\n<p>Real-time acquisition of temperature and salinity along the water column and development of the short-term forecasting model.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #003f72;\"><\/span><strong><span style=\"color: #003f72; font-size: large;\">Work Package 3:<\/span>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4>Dissemination<\/h4>\n<p>Visualisation interface, knowledge transfer and training for operators in the sector.<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; background_color=&#8221;#eff0f3&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;3%|5%|3%|5%|true|true&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3>The role of Bluefarm<\/h3>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Bluefarm is the technical body responsible for data processing and the development of the forecasting model, drawing on its expertise in environmental modelling and oceanographic data analysis:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\"><strong>Acquisition and quality control of in-situ data:<\/strong> temperature and salinity values recorded daily along the water column using CTD probes (Solinst Levelogger 5) are acquired and validated through <strong>API<\/strong> interfaces.<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\"><strong>Environmental time series (Copernicus Marine Service):<\/strong> extraction and processing of historical time series of sea surface temperature (SST), salinity and chlorophyll-a for the concession area, from the public <em>Copernicus Marine Service<\/em> portal.<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\"><strong>Development of the forecasting model:<\/strong> implementation of a one-week-ahead forecasting model of the vertical temperature and salinity profiles, based on the integrated analysis of in-situ data and short-term surface forecasts.<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\"><strong>Validation and calibration:<\/strong> verification of the model&#8217;s accuracy against the actual values measured at the mussels&#8217; immersion depth, and fine-tuning of the rapid rope-depth adjustment system.<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\"><strong>User interface and dissemination:<\/strong> development of an interface for displaying the validated time series and weekly forecasts, sharing the results with operators in the sector through social channels, webinars and meetings at the FLAG del Veneziano service centres.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The thermocline-level forecasting service and the temperature and salinity measurements along the water column will not end when the project closes, but will continue afterwards, ensuring the ongoing growth of the forecasting model and continued support for operators.<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; background_color=&#8221;#eff0f3&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;3%|5%|3%|5%|true|true&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h3>Location<\/h3>\n<div class=\"locbox\">\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The production site is located in the Gulf of Venice, in the stretch of sea off the island of Pellestrina, within a <strong>500,000 sq m (50-hectare)<\/strong> water area held under a state maritime concession, about 3 miles offshore. It is in this area that the physical and chemical parameters are measured and where the farming-depth adjustment system is applied.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The project has a total cost of <strong>\u20ac118,584<\/strong>, of which <strong>\u20ac75,000<\/strong> is covered by the EMFAF contribution (63.2%) and the remainder borne by Societ\u00e0 Agricola ItalVivai. Activities run over <strong>8 months<\/strong> from the awarding of the grant, with the aim of providing the entire mussel-farming area with a practical, scientific tool to manage facilities more effectively and mitigate the economic risks linked to climate change.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">For more information, visit the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vegal.net\/flagveneziano\/flag-veneziano-feampa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" style=\"font-size: 16px;\">FLAG del Veneziano <\/a>page.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; locked=&#8221;off&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_row column_structure=&#8221;1_3,1_3,1_3&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_3&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_number_counter title=&#8221;Months&#8221; number=&#8221;8&#8243; percent_sign=&#8221;off&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; number_font_size=&#8221;55px&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][\/et_pb_number_counter][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_3&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_number_counter title=&#8221;Total cost&#8221; number=&#8221;118.584 \u20ac&#8221; percent_sign=&#8221;off&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; number_font_size=&#8221;55px&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][\/et_pb_number_counter][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_3&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_number_counter title=&#8221;EMFAF contribution&#8221; number=&#8221;75.000 \u20ac&#8221; percent_sign=&#8221;off&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.6&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; number_font_size=&#8221;55px&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][\/et_pb_number_counter][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The project Mussel Forecast \u2013 Short-term forecasting of temperature and salinity profiles for mussel farming in the northern Adriatic Funded under the NP EMFAF 2021\/2027 (Reg. 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